Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x444f181da82f6a9ed38f9a702f52a0a2c744a7dd942fcd3ca2a7b6bea827c6aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 23,552$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,440$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,276$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 73c | 867.94$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.98 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 9c | 740.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 737.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x525c…a3adbacked Yes | 15c | 664.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…a3acbacked No | 79c | 571.16$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 5c | 570.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…6026backed Yes | 23c | 567.5$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes | 3c | 501.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…b044backed Yes | 24c | 421.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 72c | 386.77$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.57 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb18…57ecbacked Yes | 28c | 358.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1120…8f68backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 324.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 304.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 302.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 73c | 299.97$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 17c | 295.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 259.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 6c | 251.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…2b9dbacked Yes | 6c | 236.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…ab29backed Yes | 11c | 236.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c896backed Yes | 22c | 226.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd5…41b5backed Yes | 6c | 199.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…552ebacked Yes | 27c | 183.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Yes | 28c | 180.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e415backed Yes | 6c | 179.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…0f33backed No | 77c | 167.28$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 73c | 148.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…2947backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes | 10c | 131.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…b429backed Yes | 27c | 110.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…bbcfbacked Yes | 28c | 108.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed Yes | 19c | 103.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…978abacked Yes | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6577…ce03backed Yes | 28c | 96.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 22c | 95.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…7525backed Yes | 11c | 90.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeacb…bf4abacked Yes | 21c | 88.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907e…8a7cbacked Yes | 24c | 83.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…e8e4backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…8c89backed Yes | 18c | 66.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e16…6e1fbacked Yes | 19c | 52.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f3a3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…d7fdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 79c | 35.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2847…5439backed No | 73c | 29.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…1508backed No | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…778bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31?this page
- Will Khamenei visit Russia by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.