TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Jiujiang: Rio Noguchi vs Coleman Wong

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Coleman Wongof Rio Noguchi, Coleman Wong
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,080

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Rio Noguchi38c10,230$3,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9213138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Coleman Wong59c5,981$3,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,425.479,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Coleman Wong78c3,544$2,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.634,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Coleman Wong71c3,377$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.753,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4698…d7a5backed Rio Noguchi46c3,261$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50053655.4%297 W · 239 L-28.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde27…2cfdbacked Coleman Wong72c1,948$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.354247.6%20 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Rio Noguchi11c1,614$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0553241.5%221 W · 311 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2efa…8a01backed Rio Noguchi45c1,147$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.827443.2%32 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Coleman Wong60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40031736.9%117 W · 200 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Coleman Wong70c999.99$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30015040%60 W · 90 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Coleman Wong72c923.05$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.521,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Rio Noguchi38c796.61$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Rio Noguchi40c790.97$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.1115356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Rio Noguchi42c749.56$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.426,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Coleman Wong67c696.22$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.42,43350.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L+81.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc128…2217backed Rio Noguchi16c624.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010655.7%59 W · 47 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Rio Noguchi40c548.74$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22111843.2%51 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Rio Noguchi42c545$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.4558639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Rio Noguchi19c536.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10068026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a21…ba51backed Rio Noguchi30c518.15$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15610428.8%30 W · 74 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe132…ca8dbacked Coleman Wong66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bc…5616backed Coleman Wong78c451.27$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.277842.3%33 W · 45 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Rio Noguchi38c435.04$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Coleman Wong59c400$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.1930857.1%176 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Rio Noguchi51c399.83$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20554249.3%267 W · 275 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Rio Noguchi42c398.19$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16672132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Coleman Wong78c386.03$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0335264.2%226 W · 126 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…e86dbacked Coleman Wong66c376.65$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6552661.2%322 W · 204 L+1.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Coleman Wong70c348.11$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.4397745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cee…0d1ebacked Rio Noguchi32c314.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018849.5%93 W · 95 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Coleman Wong64c311.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8719167%128 W · 63 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Coleman Wong65c287.85$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Rio Noguchi44c279.17$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.685658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Rio Noguchi31c276.52$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4627936.2%101 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Coleman Wong70c272.87$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.115,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8668…7f8fbacked Rio Noguchi33c272.08$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.797560%45 W · 30 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Coleman Wong68c260.03$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2153843.5%234 W · 304 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Rio Noguchi30c259.12$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.811,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Rio Noguchi38c250$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.274,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Coleman Wong69c231$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.677,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Coleman Wong67c228$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764,65048.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L+31.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Coleman Wong67c223.93$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.289,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Rio Noguchi49c204.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976a…eee6backed Coleman Wong69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6231841.8%133 W · 185 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Coleman Wong51c195.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.777,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Rio Noguchi22c175.58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.762,33946.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L+55.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e71…eba7backed Rio Noguchi36c163.52$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3712235.2%43 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Rio Noguchi40c162.18$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.744,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d4a…e7cabacked Coleman Wong66c156.8$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.361330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Coleman Wong71c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.565346.4%303 W · 350 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea8d…e9d3backed Rio Noguchi36c139.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5028762.4%179 W · 108 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…0a76backed Coleman Wong60c133.36$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b62…4349backed Rio Noguchi38c130.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504770.2%33 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Coleman Wong66c128.47$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.687,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x859d…b336backed Rio Noguchi38c127.76$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.310355.3%57 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6a…ed83backed Rio Noguchi39c124.93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1913432.8%44 W · 90 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Coleman Wong64c124.54$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.736,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Coleman Wong68c120$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ae…3a05backed Rio Noguchi36c119.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.24344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xed2b…d4eabacked Coleman Wong63c118$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.742171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Rio Noguchi44c116.02$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.582,15054.1%1,164 W · 986 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Coleman Wong65c115.23$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.53,79854.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L+111.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Coleman Wong55c114.98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.741,73052.2%903 W · 827 L-8.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8bfa…a8debacked Rio Noguchi45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5035951.3%184 W · 175 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Rio Noguchi40c109.05$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.621,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Rio Noguchi29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2928031.8%89 W · 191 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Rio Noguchi32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac77…665cbacked Coleman Wong62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.051384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb32d…c4b8backed Coleman Wong65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6066…e2b2backed Rio Noguchi44c95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Rio Noguchi20c94.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.856,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Rio Noguchi30c79.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.591,42555.1%785 W · 640 L+23.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Coleman Wong63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3759965.8%394 W · 205 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked Rio Noguchi32c78.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7519653.1%104 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Coleman Wong67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.632,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Coleman Wong65c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51,22255%672 W · 550 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Coleman Wong65c68.09$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.881,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9bb…4066backed Coleman Wong63c66.67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.671291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick71cpaid+31.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Coleman Wong66c65.61$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0611747%55 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked Rio Noguchi32c65.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8759954.9%329 W · 270 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…8263backed Rio Noguchi40c61.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6918559.5%110 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7454…57f2backed Rio Noguchi44c57.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Coleman Wong70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1552750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Coleman Wong70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1565651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0045…9007backed Rio Noguchi32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1626548.7%129 W · 136 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Coleman Wong67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51,16849.1%573 W · 595 L-2.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f7b…e99bbacked Rio Noguchi30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153759.5%22 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Coleman Wong69c49$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.191,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x537a…7447backed Coleman Wong63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6230351.8%157 W · 146 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1225…7874backed Coleman Wong64c47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172556%14 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071f…92bdbacked Coleman Wong70c46.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.891,08573.7%800 W · 285 L+40.8wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Coleman Wong70c45.76$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.733,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee0a…36d8backed Coleman Wong71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2538262.3%238 W · 144 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Rio Noguchi34c40.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.742,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Coleman Wong64c40.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.340548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffc9…bf01backed Coleman Wong77c38.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6920957.9%121 W · 88 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4350…4bbabacked Coleman Wong69c37.76$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.730672.9%223 W · 83 L+27.2wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x660b…9852backed Rio Noguchi38c35.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.455326.4%14 W · 39 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2863…1114backed Coleman Wong66c32.36$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115966.1%39 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba1a…85febacked Rio Noguchi32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1072651.8%376 W · 350 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.