Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Jacob Fearnley
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa469e493863eb2cc602fcae6b7dca8776314e86f8f86b98d5895261b182d13fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fearnleyof Agut, Fearnley
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Agut | 0c | 11,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Agut | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Agut | 33c | 4,403$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.99 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Fearnley | 42c | 4,379$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,528.83 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Fearnley | 63c | 3,889$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.29 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Agut | 29c | 3,544$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.17 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…6e7abacked Agut | 60c | 3,311$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Fearnley | 40c | 3,311$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Agut | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Fearnley | 68c | 1,811$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.34 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Fearnley | 48c | 1,550$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.07 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Fearnley | 43c | 1,284$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.63 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Agut | 58c | 1,200$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Fearnley | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Agut | 42c | 1,040$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.15 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Agut | 59c | 1,019$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Fearnley | 59c | 986$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.44 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Agut | 57c | 704.83$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.45 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Agut | 19c | 520.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Fearnley | 40c | 500.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.45 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Agut | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fearnley | 63c | 462$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.8 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Fearnley | 69c | 437.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.13 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Agut | 14c | 366.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Fearnley | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Agut | 56c | 227.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fearnley | 45c | 222.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fearnley | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Fearnley | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Agut | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Fearnley | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Agut | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Fearnley | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Fearnley | 42c | 138$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Fearnley | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Agut | 46c | 52.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Agut | 61c | 48.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Agut | 41c | 43.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Fearnley | 40c | 41.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Agut | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Fearnley | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f1e4backed Agut | 59c | 34.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Agut | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Agut | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.