Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4d8c0d75ef407c22023f8e322f4a91b0e74cf9845b857ce31581823e16118ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 43c | 898.58$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 62c | 721.77$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 410.91$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 56c | 341.44$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.9 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 306.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 29c | 285.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.23 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 36c | 262.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.02 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 50c | 205.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 57c | 194.82$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 16c | 153.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 131.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 126.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 39c | 123$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 60c | 107.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 20c | 104.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 63c | 98.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 65c | 74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked No | 48c | 70.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 15c | 68.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed Yes | 38c | 67.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 38c | 61.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 72c | 58.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 52c | 57.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 73c | 57.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 66c | 52.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 52.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 27c | 48.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 36c | 46.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 37c | 46.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 45.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 44.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 43.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 71c | 42.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 41.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 32c | 39.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 57c | 38.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…963dbacked Yes | 38c | 37.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…d9dabacked Yes | 38c | 37.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 35.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 48c | 34.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 56c | 32.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 30.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 74c | 28.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa75…18aebacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 27.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 74c | 26.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 76c | 26.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 67c | 26.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…2c0cbacked Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 59c | 18.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 65c | 16.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 15.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.