NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Kings: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5315652050671e52e7bd0991721c60747bf01ad688337008f1163ca434b9120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,728 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 55c | 8,145$4,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,628.89 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 3,191$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 44c | 3,129$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.95 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 2,486$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.41 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 1,000$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 69c | 696.85$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.08 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 57c | 607.37$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.23 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Over | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 42c | 402.53$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.06 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked Under | 42c | 227.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 17c | 212.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 382 | 42.9%164 W · 218 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 172.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 78c | 129.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 49c | 107.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 44c | 98.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 60c | 90.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Over | 58c | 84.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 233 | 49.4%115 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 76.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 44c | 69.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 48c | 69.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 58c | 69.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 60c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 61.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 61.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b5…ae57backed Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 32c | 41.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 51c | 39.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 273 | 45.1%123 W · 150 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Under | 36c | 29.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Over | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Kings: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-0.5)Kings won
- Bulls vs. KingsKings won
- Bulls vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Bulls vs. Kings: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Kings: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 15.5No won
- DeMar DeRozan: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Guerschon Yabusele: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Maxime Raynaud: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nique Clifford: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Precious Achiuwa: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Kings won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Kings won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Kings won
- Tre Jones: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.