NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8ebdef5078b6fe78d0cae84698168cc9c9f75b6d3af53a93fc5fa0ca397dc16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Bulls, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,221 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 39c | 4,788$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.18 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Kings | 61c | 4,738$2,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.68 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 55c | 2,759$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings | 43c | 1,837$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.14 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 46c | 1,770$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Bulls | 46c | 1,500$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.99 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…1aa9backed Bulls | 55c | 1,349$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.95 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls | 58c | 969.32$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.41 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Bulls | 52c | 684$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.68 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kings | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Kings | 58c | 421.3$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kings | 55c | 354.13$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.9 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Bulls | 55c | 313.21$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Kings | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Kings | 42c | 263.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.1 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bulls | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Kings | 45c | 211.69$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.43 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Bulls | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Kings | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Kings | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a8…d0e7backed Bulls | 54c | 111.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Bulls | 41c | 81.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Bulls | 52c | 76.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Kings | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Kings | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 273 | 45.1%123 W · 150 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Kings | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 56c | 62.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Kings | 59c | 58.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Kings | 58c | 58.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…5578backed Bulls | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Bulls | 57c | 44.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Bulls | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Kings | 47c | 37.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Kings | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bulls | 46c | 32.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Bulls | 44c | 32.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Bulls | 60c | 25.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Bulls | 52c | 23.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Bulls | 47c | 21.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-0.5)Kings won
- Bulls vs. KingsKings won
- Bulls vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Bulls vs. Kings: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Kings: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 15.5No won
- DeMar DeRozan: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Guerschon Yabusele: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Maxime Raynaud: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nique Clifford: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Precious Achiuwa: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Kings won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Kings won
- Tre Jones: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.