TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jannik Sinnerof Jannik Sinner, Casper Ruud
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,337,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,590,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,337,577 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4be1…aa70backed Casper Ruud14c256,242$35,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,876.4210146.5%47 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Casper Ruud6c181,445$11,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,223.2313843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Jannik Sinner78c110,008$85,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,712.313360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e83…3bb7backed Casper Ruud1c99,731$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Casper Ruud16c84,859$13,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,486.428,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5af4…a7dfbacked Casper Ruud15c65,012$9,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,751.835030%15 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Casper Ruud14c50,100$7,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,02456757.1%324 W · 243 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Casper Ruud23c31,088$7,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,264.4266139.3%260 W · 401 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Casper Ruud14c30,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2004,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9b…8aedbacked Casper Ruud15c29,804$4,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,470.653348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-27.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Casper Ruud10c29,613$2,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,922.8114243%61 W · 81 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f75…af7ebacked Casper Ruud19c29,194$5,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,411.0410761.7%66 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Casper Ruud14c28,875$4,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,042.5178536.1%283 W · 502 L+36.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Casper Ruud17c22,820$3,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,984.536,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Casper Ruud14c22,500$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f55…2181backed Casper Ruud4c21,991$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.4212839.8%51 W · 77 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed Casper Ruud2c19,001$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.0327431.8%87 W · 187 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Casper Ruud10c18,903$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.3872132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5234…4c4fbacked Casper Ruud15c17,934$2,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,635.772352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+29.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed Casper Ruud11c17,366$1,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,971.2618315.8%29 W · 154 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Casper Ruud17c15,155$2,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,626.64,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Casper Ruud6c14,915$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.878,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Casper Ruud13c14,304$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.381,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76cc…fbbcbacked Casper Ruud7c13,080$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.0613427.6%37 W · 97 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc965…c8ecbacked Casper Ruud15c12,952$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.851921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick17cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Casper Ruud14c12,004$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,680.564346.5%20 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Casper Ruud1c11,110$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.991,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51e1…5ec9backed Casper Ruud2c10,813$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.3944018.9%83 W · 357 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe166…8f14backed Casper Ruud14c10,388$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002015%3 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick21cpaid+6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Casper Ruud14c10,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002544%11 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ae…c975backed Casper Ruud1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021537.2%80 W · 135 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…ba42backed Casper Ruud14c9,882$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.231844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Casper Ruud21c9,873$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.1815832.9%52 W · 106 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e1…34a5backed Casper Ruud15c9,591$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d24…6597backed Casper Ruud14c8,804$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9082…afc3backed Casper Ruud7c8,262$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.551717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-46.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Casper Ruud14c8,017$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.322,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb5…50c3backed Casper Ruud3c7,510$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb0e…d546backed Casper Ruud1c6,775$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Casper Ruud26c6,764$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.5511,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Casper Ruud15c6,659$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.3740748.9%199 W · 208 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Casper Ruud10c6,000$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60519835.4%70 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafe6…8192backed Casper Ruud15c5,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75024840.7%101 W · 147 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Casper Ruud14c5,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70064755.2%357 W · 290 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Casper Ruud8c4,969$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Casper Ruud22c4,925$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.941,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Casper Ruud20c4,844$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.891,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Jannik Sinner79c4,812$3,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.131,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Casper Ruud16c4,785$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.0657939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c3a…eb16backed Casper Ruud14c4,763$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.827320.5%15 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135d…56c0backed Casper Ruud10c4,519$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4509533.7%32 W · 63 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9ff…79dcbacked Casper Ruud18c3,916$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Casper Ruud18c3,881$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.9622056.4%124 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Casper Ruud1c3,361$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2342332.4%137 W · 286 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31dd…7159backed Casper Ruud15c3,301$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.1790340.2%363 W · 540 L+4.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Casper Ruud2c3,106$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Casper Ruud9c3,084$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.4142839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed Casper Ruud24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72014835.8%53 W · 95 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16db…ac64backed Casper Ruud2c2,859$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1750%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Casper Ruud14c2,805$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.7342341.4%175 W · 248 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6919…cc07backed Casper Ruud8c2,722$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.615724.6%14 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-25.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Jannik Sinner77c2,627$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.211747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Casper Ruud5c2,585$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7616848.2%81 W · 87 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Casper Ruud15c2,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37574743.6%326 W · 421 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Casper Ruud15c2,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3751,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Casper Ruud1c2,392$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.522,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x957b…716dbacked Casper Ruud7c2,335$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-85.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Casper Ruud10c2,241$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7920412.7%26 W · 178 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Casper Ruud22c2,221$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.3480341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c87…98b1backed Casper Ruud3c2,210$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.32262.2%5 W · 221 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Casper Ruud9c2,185$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.6975748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4748…9666backed Casper Ruud18c2,167$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39048440.3%195 W · 289 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2efa…8a01backed Casper Ruud14c2,143$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007443.2%32 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Casper Ruud13c2,124$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.0868935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa5…63afbacked Casper Ruud1c2,103$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.697810.3%8 W · 70 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Casper Ruud2c2,090$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3814849.3%73 W · 75 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Casper Ruud15c2,066$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.951,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Casper Ruud15c2,052$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.859134.1%31 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed Casper Ruud6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12038911.6%45 W · 344 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…6575backed Casper Ruud29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5806631.8%21 W · 45 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Casper Ruud4c1,990$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.381,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Jannik Sinner77c1,948$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.0550458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Jannik Sinner75c1,862$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.434965.3%32 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+86.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd1b…b9c4backed Casper Ruud3c1,855$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+175.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa363…46c8backed Casper Ruud15c1,743$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.2922821.1%48 W · 180 L-0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba06…0004backed Casper Ruud7c1,700$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12015151%77 W · 74 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdad6…63a0backed Casper Ruud14c1,671$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2345248.1%25 W · 27 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0574…3ee0backed Casper Ruud3c1,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507121.1%15 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Casper Ruud18c1,662$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060158.6%352 W · 249 L+2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1740…529ebacked Casper Ruud2c1,613$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357062.9%44 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6557…12c7backed Casper Ruud20c1,557$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.625341.5%22 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Casper Ruud3c1,540$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020938.3%80 W · 129 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Casper Ruud3c1,523$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.141,22652%637 W · 589 L+44.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5044…f67fbacked Casper Ruud14c1,429$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Casper Ruud5c1,333$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701028.8%9 W · 93 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Casper Ruud15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005032%16 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-42.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc04b…5966backed Casper Ruud15c1,326$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a18…61a0backed Casper Ruud2c1,230$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.652155.3%288 W · 233 L+27.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8173…71c1backed Casper Ruud2c1,143$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+318.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b89…baa4backed Casper Ruud10c1,143$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103627.8%10 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.