Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6151d5db259a4ffa4308b849bd22e0460d9eafdf61cc6bbca8a44a601d05686
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 43c | 2,024$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.26 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 389.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 57c | 292.14$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.38 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 56c | 266.12$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 265.55$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 56c | 249.73$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 204.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 57c | 191.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 42c | 171.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 56c | 167.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 147.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 122.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 115.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 44c | 114.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 107.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 57c | 105.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 45c | 105$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 52c | 95.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 39c | 92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0a…c761backed No | 47c | 86.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed No | 46c | 85.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 40c | 80.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5970…c99bbacked Yes | 57c | 79.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…dc4ebacked Yes | 57c | 77.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 55c | 72.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 69.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 41c | 68.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 42c | 67.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 43c | 61.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 70c | 59.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 45c | 55.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 39c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…f6e8backed Yes | 57c | 52.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 59c | 51.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 32c | 50.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 48.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 41c | 47.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 46.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 45.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 46c | 41.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 59c | 41.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 38.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 40c | 36.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 40c | 30.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 59c | 27.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 59c | 17.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 59c | 17.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.