UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa67c886b8be1d980695ab2aeb2ad40948ca2768e6530f3bf575a179234ca7d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 3,370$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.72 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Over | 51c | 2,451$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.98 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 49c | 866.2$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.13 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 51c | 491.67$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.84 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…5fb4backed Over | 51c | 392.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…decfbacked Over | 51c | 377.35$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 52c | 270.21$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 52c | 212.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…5e23backed Under | 48c | 203.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…8faebacked Over | 51c | 196.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Under | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Under | 51c | 112.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 42c | 98.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Under | 50c | 59.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 50c | 53.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Under | 46c | 45.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 53c | 37.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Under | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main Card)Louie Sutherland won
- Will Tai Tuivasa win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.