Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Georgia State Panthers

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6b22631f7bddce5d78d43864e62e45faed33d34c9650b7df771234c825e649e

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Appalachian State Mountaineersof Appalachian State Mountaineers, Georgia State Panthers
Resolved: Jan 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $22,591
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $26,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,591 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe401…7b88backed Georgia State Panthers	60c	1,548$927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$927.35	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a4e…3309backed Georgia State Panthers	48c	1,452$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	57	35.1%20 W · 37 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Georgia State Panthers	61c	1,319$803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$802.79	158	61.4%97 W · 61 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	37c	1,270$468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$801.57	50	24%12 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers	52c	1,225$635 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$590.4	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	39c	1,042$410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$631.87	2,254	42.2%951 W · 1,303 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Georgia State Panthers	46c	874.54$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.29	1,391	44.1%613 W · 778 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	33c	829.84$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$556.45	423	27.2%115 W · 308 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers	62c	742.15$461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.76	493	45.4%224 W · 269 L	+7.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	45c	689$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$378.69	722	48.8%352 W · 370 L	-23.6wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Georgia State Panthers	55c	663.71$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.05	573	35.6%204 W · 369 L	-27.3wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	54c	663.01$358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.98	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Georgia State Panthers	35c	584.15$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.05	2,124	50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Georgia State Panthers	26c	488.53$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.9	368	45.7%168 W · 200 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Georgia State Panthers	12c	450$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	88	14.8%13 W · 75 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Georgia State Panthers	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	484	62.8%304 W · 180 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Georgia State Panthers	47c	325.32$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.8	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Georgia State Panthers	12c	300$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers	55c	300$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135	181	29.3%53 W · 128 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	52c	271$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.08	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Georgia State Panthers	52c	234$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.82	1,173	25.2%296 W · 877 L	-43.0wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	49c	211$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.29	456	44.5%203 W · 253 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ac…9955backed Georgia State Panthers	11c	200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	54	38.9%21 W · 33 L	+15.0wins	+0.28per pick	11cpaid	+213.8%equal weight	71+0.19 edge/pick
0x3798…27fabacked Georgia State Panthers	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+54.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71d…3f27backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-3.3wins	-0.18per pick	57cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Georgia State Panthers	36c	180.56$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	126	42.1%53 W · 73 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Georgia State Panthers	45c	158.67$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.9	2,003	53.7%1,076 W · 927 L	+101.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed Georgia State Panthers	8c	150.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	104	8.7%9 W · 95 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Georgia State Panthers	53c	147.08$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.33	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Georgia State Panthers	45c	127$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.15	1,074	47%505 W · 569 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Georgia State Panthers	32c	119$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.08	1,531	50.1%767 W · 764 L	+34.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Georgia State Panthers	31c	106.96$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.18	735	49.1%361 W · 374 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	62	35.5%22 W · 40 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-22%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Georgia State Panthers	43c	91$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.44	1,951	45.1%880 W · 1,071 L	-19.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x454a…4039backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	53c	87$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.89	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	54c	78.45$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.09	990	45.6%451 W · 539 L	+9.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	46c	70.99$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.02	1,985	64.1%1,273 W · 712 L	+144.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	54c	66$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.36	53	64.2%34 W · 19 L	+6.1wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers	54c	64.41$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.63	4,552	50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L	-36.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf76d…7c42backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	77c	57.73$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	55c	56$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.33	56	62.5%35 W · 21 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	53c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Georgia State Panthers	46c	45.5$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.93	2,048	32.7%670 W · 1,378 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers	46c	43.61$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.42	1,887	45.2%853 W · 1,034 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	53c	42.03$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.72	3,380	49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L	+30.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Appalachian State Mountaineers	36c	33.14$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.21	43	18.6%8 W · 35 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Georgia State Panthers	38c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	92	54.3%50 W · 42 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers	38c	28.6$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.75	323	43%139 W · 184 L	-18.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88d0…524cbacked Georgia State Panthers	47c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9431…6270backed Georgia State Panthers	46c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf340…6224backed Georgia State Panthers	46c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf2…6640backed Georgia State Panthers	46c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-3.7wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	54c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.1	2,555	41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed Appalachian State Mountaineers	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	46	67.4%31 W · 15 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Georgia State Panthers

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market