World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa762f173b450547f6476fcfdbb38e22534ecc737c9d76487ea04f62d7220469c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 2,437$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.61 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 778.45$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.93 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 324.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 312.73$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 284.3$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 269.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 269.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 196.59$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 138.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 133.55$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 122$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…c5c9backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 119.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 100.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 53c | 89.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 46c | 69.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 69.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 65.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 41c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 50.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 38c | 46.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 44.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 41.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 59c | 40.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 36c | 38.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 41c | 35.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 33.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 31c | 32.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 29.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 27.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 27.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 24.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 60c | 22.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 62c | 21.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 62c | 21.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.