NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Patriots (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa77bc61b7a014ca3800a725b385fb993aa2d02b097cb860946f5cb097f206c03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6b6…f090backed Patriots | 58c | 4,300$2,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jets | 42c | 3,138$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.1 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jets | 42c | 1,661$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.77 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jets | 30c | 689.84$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.21 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…9d80backed Patriots | 56c | 358.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.74 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa217…603abacked Patriots | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…c987backed Jets | 46c | 196$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f7…2b92backed Jets | 46c | 192$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…e673backed Jets | 46c | 187$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a53…4d81backed Patriots | 54c | 184$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…fb9abacked Patriots | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…fa4bbacked Jets | 46c | 179$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…4f36backed Patriots | 54c | 174$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…dedebacked Patriots | 54c | 172$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x408e…6cddbacked Patriots | 57c | 156.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…ee9fbacked Patriots | 57c | 78.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Patriots | 55c | 74.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee6…67d2backed Patriots | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Jets won
- Jets vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Jets vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Jets vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 42.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 43.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-10.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-11.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-12.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.