NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e4aa35f3b9c490fd101049adea69d33a3dbec06b7193a394d89c1b1d8a1034f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2ab…f2c3backed Patriots | 57c | 14,017$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,016.84 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Patriots | 57c | 14,000$7,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,020 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Patriots | 56c | 12,738$7,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,604.72 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Jets | 44c | 12,480$5,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,491.19 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jets | 43c | 12,323$5,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,293.12 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jets | 46c | 8,657$3,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,995.63 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Jets | 43c | 6,577$2,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,830.16 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jets | 44c | 4,218$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.22 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jets | 44c | 3,715$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,627.02 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Patriots | 51c | 3,425$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.45 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Jets | 45c | 3,403$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.35 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Patriots | 56c | 1,589$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.16 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Patriots | 56c | 1,394$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.51 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Jets | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Patriots | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jets | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Jets | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Patriots | 55c | 999$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.55 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…be02backed Patriots | 56c | 919.64$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.64 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Patriots | 51c | 870$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.3 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Patriots | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Jets | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Patriots | 55c | 484.52$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.03 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Patriots | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Patriots | 53c | 227.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Jets | 45c | 217.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jets | 44c | 211.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Jets | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…b4b0backed Patriots | 54c | 184.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Patriots | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0025…6ca8backed Patriots | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…45e0backed Jets | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…9edabacked Patriots | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…3864backed Patriots | 57c | 127.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Patriots | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214d…8911backed Patriots | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1fa0backed Patriots | 56c | 106.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…0accbacked Patriots | 53c | 105.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Patriots | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Patriots | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c8…a3b0backed Patriots | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Jets | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Patriots | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 220 | 53.2%117 W · 103 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Jets | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Patriots | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Patriots | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Patriots | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…c942backed Patriots | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…2ed6backed Patriots | 54c | 63.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Patriots | 56c | 55.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Patriots | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…3599backed Patriots | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf76f…d928backed Patriots | 56c | 42.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Patriots | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked Patriots | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Patriots | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Jets | 46c | 31.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed Patriots | 57c | 30.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jets | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Patriots | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Patriots | 55c | 27.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Jets | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…75a1backed Patriots | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Patriots won
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Jets won
- Jets vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Jets vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Jets vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 42.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 43.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-11.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-12.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.