NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1585b025996176c1e1ec61a6a684d7407703ea64f51ca7378b034bc932443bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 2,996$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.84 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 2,779$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.06 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 52c | 2,717$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.4 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 42c | 778.45$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.95 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 51c | 700$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Under | 58c | 689.66$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.66 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Over | 44c | 623$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.12 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed Over | 43c | 563.86$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.46 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Under | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Over | 53c | 481.44$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.16 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 466.04$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.73 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 204.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…d83abacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 49c | 139$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed Over | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Under | 56c | 124.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Under | 57c | 117.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 54c | 87.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…5203backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…ddcdbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5541…9c6abacked Under | 58c | 38.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…1956backed Over | 44c | 36.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…b4e6backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 55c | 21.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Patriots won
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Jets won
- Jets vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Jets vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Jets vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 42.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 43.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-10.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-11.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-12.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.