NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7de1945ef45a241f606ae7bd4d4a4934e28564eb2124b6144f0faf6b5218c834
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 37c | 4,279$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.24 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 62c | 2,206$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.5 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Under | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Under | 63c | 1,251$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 39c | 661.92$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.26 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 36c | 549.64$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.36 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Under | 62c | 510.27$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.9 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…b4b0backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x872f…6a25backed Over | 39c | 155$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…c511backed Under | 61c | 145$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…1956backed Over | 39c | 89.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 46.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…91acbacked Under | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Under | 60c | 24.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad7…02f7backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Patriots won
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Jets won
- Jets vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Jets vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Jets vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 42.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 43.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-10.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-11.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-12.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.