NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09911ce713cec13f921cfb0919dda192390228159ace5d04a8f2d42ccdfae1f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 48c | 23,044$10,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,995.96 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 15,217$7,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,304.15 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Over | 49c | 9,646$4,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,702.39 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 7,500$3,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,575 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 6,760$3,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,312.49 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 2,013$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.81 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Under | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 46c | 1,522$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.12 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 1,214$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.64 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 53c | 1,037$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.42 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Over | 48c | 928.29$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.58 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Under | 54c | 926.72$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 52c | 562.8$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.44 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Under | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…0a23backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 402.58$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.19 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 275$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Over | 48c | 268.75$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 263.94$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 48c | 191$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 143$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Under | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 138.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 48c | 57.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…fe7bbacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Under | 54c | 25.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 43.5this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Patriots won
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Jets won
- Jets vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Jets vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Jets vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 42.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5Under won
- Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-10.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-11.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-12.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.