Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa79a7f5a1f688c4cc3081086b27744d0e81b4640cd94ba07db187e3f98b9a4a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 39c | 1,411$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.21 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 53c | 682.77$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.39 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 591.22$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 50c | 377.38$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.41 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 370.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 50c | 364.71$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.55 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 7c | 361.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 345.5$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 312.63$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.19 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 16c | 261.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 253.5$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 52c | 245$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 243.26$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 242.96$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 62c | 202.31$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked No | 52c | 199.66$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 199.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 13c | 187$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 146.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 65c | 116.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 50c | 104.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 61c | 103.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 102.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 101.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 101$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 98.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 90.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 87.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 27c | 85.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 84.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 79.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 32c | 78.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 36c | 75.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 73.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 72.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 66.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 66.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 64.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 64.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 59c | 60.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 47c | 59.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 57.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 35c | 56.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 53c | 56.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 52.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…912bbacked No | 55c | 51.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 76c | 48.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ae…ab03backed Yes | 52c | 48.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 39c | 46.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 24c | 44.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…dd32backed Yes | 46c | 40.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 50c | 40.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…7e2abacked No | 50c | 39.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 37c | 39.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 27c | 38.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 36.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 34.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 33.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 70c | 33.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 36c | 30.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 53c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 22.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.