Serie A · resolved market
Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa809134968f03f3dabda85a64b74d8420b661c52b41a8cd2629e62d63a7a43ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 5c | 23,105$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.96 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 4c | 8,074$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.88 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 5c | 7,218$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.95 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 5c | 6,050$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.66 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…6ad4backed Yes | 5c | 4,199$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 4c | 3,582$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 4c | 3,373$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 4c | 3,231$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…9959backed Yes | 5c | 2,184$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb28d…83e4backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,921$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 4c | 1,777$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…6244backed Yes | 7c | 1,462$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes | 5c | 1,260$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,225$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…d333backed Yes | 3c | 1,191$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,183$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3909…335fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 5c | 999.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 222 | 37.4%83 W · 139 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…9491backed Yes | 5c | 999.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 4c | 900.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf24…a100backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 4c | 701.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…102cbacked Yes | 5c | 649.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 4c | 642.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 5c | 611.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 5c | 581.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 4c | 510.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2834…c196backed Yes | 5c | 492.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…a652backed Yes | 7c | 487.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 4c | 475$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 450.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…83ddbacked Yes | 5c | 380$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…b89abacked Yes | 4c | 362.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a0…05c4backed Yes | 7c | 334.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 298.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 278.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Yes | 5c | 238.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…1242backed Yes | 7c | 220.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…5503backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f7…fb66backed Yes | 7c | 160.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-14?this page
- Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. US Lecce end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.