Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa81528458619fa6ff9ebf7098a6dab31dbd8a28eb04b926b1c8f211257b41c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 35c | 398$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.87 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 304.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 65c | 301.43$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 289.58$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 211.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 189.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 184.79$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296a…a891backed Yes | 73c | 129.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 127.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 41c | 124.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 61c | 111$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…f180backed Yes | 21c | 97.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 96.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 93.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 52c | 91.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 52c | 90.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 69c | 75.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 67.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 67c | 64.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 33c | 58.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 33c | 52.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 50.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 49.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 46.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 39c | 40.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 40.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 37c | 40.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 39.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 39.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 38.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 34.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 49c | 32.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 27.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 62c | 26.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 77c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 74c | 24.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 23.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 69c | 22.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 21.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 21.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 67c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…a04ebacked No | 77c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 78c | 17.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 68c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked Yes | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.