Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6d6d3f5f0995a5d43dcf0b8554ae703ffc3cd0b483af2fc17505e6c21965246
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 36c | 1,429$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.98 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 57c | 468.96$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.27 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 79c | 445.36$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 314.1$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 312.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 292$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 274$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 217$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 203.4$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 21c | 188.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 185.67$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.89 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 172$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 137.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 35c | 117.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…f180backed No | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 105.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 62c | 102.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 94.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 84.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 83.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 77.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 22c | 77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 58c | 74.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4f…4926backed Yes | 43c | 71.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.32per pick | 53cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 63c | 68.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 61.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 43c | 57.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 55.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 31c | 46.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 34.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 72c | 33.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 43c | 32.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 32.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 58c | 29.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6a60…ea7dbacked Yes | 42c | 29.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked No | 58c | 27.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 58c | 26.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 25.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 23.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 62c | 23.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 22.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 21.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 64c | 21.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 68c | 19.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 59c | 19.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 19.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 18.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.