Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa852c2af76c5461a0d3c04b9e295d94e2683dde80a4331381434a9513b7f9154
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 350.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 57c | 342.56$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.8 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 307.19$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 291.87$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.56 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 287.48$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 287.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 255$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 21c | 209.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 61c | 162.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 26c | 148.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 8c | 142.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 141.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 138.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 36c | 123.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 114.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 33c | 102.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 90.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 87.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 66c | 83.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 83.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 79.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 37c | 79.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 58c | 77.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked Yes | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 34c | 73.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 51c | 68.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 67.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 48c | 66.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked No | 46c | 64.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 47c | 64.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 77c | 63.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 40c | 63.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 40c | 62.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 59.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 58c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 58.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 75c | 49.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 47.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 24c | 46.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 43.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 48c | 41.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 52c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 67c | 40.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 62c | 39.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 48c | 38.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 73c | 37.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 54c | 37.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 30c | 36.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 53c | 36.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 40c | 32.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 49c | 32.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 63c | 31.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 38c | 31.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 56c | 30.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 30.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 30.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 42c | 28.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 62c | 27.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 62c | 27.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked No | 40c | 25.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 24.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 45c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 68c | 22.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 22.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 71c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.