Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa853e9873b8a8441c45d0be189fd80482b9cd8a0c4a01fb1a153745fa3df7ad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 42c | 567.89$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.13 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 400.84$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 55c | 302.01$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.47 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 40c | 274.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 263.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 29c | 239.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 6c | 195.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 178.97$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 153.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 55c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 52c | 144.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 135.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 43c | 135.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 16c | 113.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 58c | 111.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 42c | 109.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 53c | 94.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 56c | 80.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 78.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 30c | 77.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 53c | 76.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 69.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 64.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 57c | 63.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 31c | 62.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 53c | 61.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 56.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 55c | 55.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 54.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 50c | 44.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 47c | 41.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…3122backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 54c | 36.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 50c | 36.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 35.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed Yes | 45c | 33.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 29.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 29.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 55c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed Yes | 46c | 25.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 64cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 54c | 25.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 56c | 24.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 45c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…076ebacked No | 64c | 18.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.