Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8cd0469b86bace0ab7d341d473c808f90d47e3462800fa9a3adab287af4c2e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 2c | 4,518$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,332$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 1,249$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 3c | 561.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 43c | 413.22$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.22 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 262.2$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca4…1386backed No | 55c | 181$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes | 9c | 154.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…f705backed Yes | 46c | 131.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 53c | 104.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…ae45backed Yes | 44c | 99.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 90.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 56c | 88.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095c…d20cbacked Yes | 57c | 87.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 20c | 78.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 46c | 52.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed No | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 36c | 41.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 40.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked No | 77c | 39.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…c88bbacked No | 58c | 39.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 46c | 34.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…8719backed Yes | 45c | 33.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 29.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed No | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…bb99backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 26.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb9…533fbacked No | 70c | 20.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…de59backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…8c95backed No | 57c | 19.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce7…2d6bbacked No | 56c | 18.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 25°F or below on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.