Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35c268a9ba1b27115c9b42415a667177d9959310d2c9b3131bca9e7942a13f3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72c0…d9ffbacked No | 1c | 2,808$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 1,648$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 5c | 693.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 24c | 375.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed No | 52c | 353.91$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 59c | 287.71$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Yes | 77c | 259.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 61c | 253.77$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 61c | 220$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…ae45backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 55c | 177.72$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 75c | 164.71$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e100backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 65c | 138.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…addebacked No | 8c | 131.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 79c | 130.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 40c | 113.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…4519backed Yes | 64c | 109.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…de59backed Yes | 65c | 106.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed Yes | 40c | 99.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…4fd2backed No | 42c | 82.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 65c | 77.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked No | 37c | 76.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 67.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25cf…c6dfbacked No | 30c | 67.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9614…67fdbacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 59.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 64c | 56.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 58c | 41.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 42c | 40.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 45c | 40.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed Yes | 51c | 39.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 62c | 36.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee7…3331backed Yes | 75c | 31.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…bdcdbacked Yes | 64c | 31.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…dd08backed Yes | 65c | 30.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 65c | 30.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…7201backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…e2bfbacked Yes | 41c | 27.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0639backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 59c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 56c | 24.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…ca3cbacked Yes | 78c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd962…1d5cbacked Yes | 76c | 15.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 25°F or below on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.