Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86603a152e53352e41f1d15a989e856d6c372ac0540d5360fdeae19089df29f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 24c | 3,283$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.61 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 1,555$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…9db0backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 815$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…8a62backed No | 75c | 741.72$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 577.28$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.63 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 554.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 39c | 546.65$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.66 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 17c | 504.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 29c | 422.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 16c | 380.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 76c | 322.91$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 314.04$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes | 29c | 299.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 41c | 246.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked No | 76c | 236.73$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 46c | 235.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 72c | 173.29$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes | 38c | 172.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 13c | 147.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 12c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 39c | 138.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 41c | 135$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 37c | 133.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…bdcdbacked Yes | 40c | 125.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked No | 69c | 122.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0639backed Yes | 38c | 120.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 117.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…5319backed Yes | 32c | 111.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…405fbacked Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…2f6ebacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 10c | 109.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 34c | 106.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 63c | 103.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 48c | 102.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…ae45backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…f705backed Yes | 48c | 94.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 26c | 89.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 12c | 87.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…74aabacked Yes | 44c | 84.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 82.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…ca06backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…c204backed Yes | 41c | 63.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…352ebacked No | 67c | 62.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed Yes | 41c | 60.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 57.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 53c | 56.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 56.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 31c | 56.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 46c | 53.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 51.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…a28ebacked No | 67c | 47.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 42c | 47.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…bb99backed No | 61c | 47.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 49c | 43.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 59c | 41.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 41c | 38.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 39c | 38.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 35c | 34.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf4…e221backed Yes | 45c | 33.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 32.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…be85backed Yes | 55c | 31.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…b3a4backed Yes | 36c | 31.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadd…500bbacked No | 66c | 30.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 45c | 28.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed18…39d9backed No | 50c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…3633backed No | 50c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 64c | 22.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 55c | 22.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2394…064dbacked Yes | 53c | 21.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 25°F or below on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.