Fifa International · resolved market
Spain to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8e0ff57f8df5fa066edaf82cd6c57a85aae2dba8092d35e2f0672f29b372245
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 42,242$16,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,333.63 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 61c | 25,064$15,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,774.29 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 61c | 14,439$8,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,631.38 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…1a2abacked Yes | 41c | 9,689$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked No | 53c | 7,773$4,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,653.4 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 47c | 5,059$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.77 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 59c | 5,002$2,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.7 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 4,262$2,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.72 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 46c | 2,325$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.5 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked No | 58c | 1,526$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.47 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…e29fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,176$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed No | 50c | 941.75$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.88 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed No | 63c | 751.41$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.66 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 47c | 725.28$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.83 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…4cc3backed Yes | 16c | 675.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Yes | 50c | 563.38$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.69 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Yes | 48c | 504.82$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.35 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked Yes | 47c | 482$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.54 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 54c | 399.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 15c | 386.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…3773backed Yes | 34c | 246.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 77c | 197.94$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…6f39backed Yes | 47c | 139.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 60c | 130.58$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…6cb3backed No | 59c | 112.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf460…b2adbacked Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 561 | 51%286 W · 275 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…444abacked No | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 82.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b3…48a9backed Yes | 39c | 69.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 59.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…834ebacked Yes | 39c | 50.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…137ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa68d…eab5backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe250…ea7abacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…87babacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 54c | 37.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 481 | 54.9%264 W · 217 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 62c | 30.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Yes | 35c | 29.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 68c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…982ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…3772backed No | 64c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d731backed No | 51c | 19.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spain to win the second half?this page
- Uruguay to win the second half?No won
- Uruguay vs. Spain: Second half draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.