TailMyPicks

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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-Zero Tenacityof illwill, ex-Zero Tenacity
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,791
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,791 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa927…8d9fbacked illwill36c2,680$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.2134559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed ex-Zero Tenacity31c2,374$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.721,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed ex-Zero Tenacity48c1,732$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.054,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked illwill26c1,538$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.061,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked illwill44c1,524$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.461,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed illwill36c1,510$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.351,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7365…9589backed illwill59c1,402$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.3429455.8%164 W · 130 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed ex-Zero Tenacity46c1,210$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.7612154.5%66 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b7…d0e2backed illwill68c1,200$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.66650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked ex-Zero Tenacity61c1,127$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.083,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ex-Zero Tenacity57c1,091$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.522,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed ex-Zero Tenacity43c1,074$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.3978043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed illwill57c1,027$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.712,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa902…d159backed ex-Zero Tenacity63c932.73$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.111266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed ex-Zero Tenacity53c905.53$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.5529934.4%103 W · 196 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde24…e804backed illwill59c861.08$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.025935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked illwill60c850.44$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.3419342.5%82 W · 111 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed illwill47c770.57$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.2843544.6%194 W · 241 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed illwill40c676.89$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.912,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ex-Zero Tenacity46c627.32$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.262,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c8…2223backed ex-Zero Tenacity73c626.95$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.951770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed illwill42c607$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.335,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked illwill63c600$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37811758.1%68 W · 49 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked illwill37c563.11$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9137441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd92c…dd9abacked ex-Zero Tenacity38c544.53$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.965246.2%24 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5113…b692backed illwill49c500.21$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.553652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed illwill61c499.68$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.741,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-Zero Tenacity33c447.92$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.887,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc218…2c33backed ex-Zero Tenacity64c431.89$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.871485.7%12 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5501…fe9abacked illwill45c430.85$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3718736.9%69 W · 118 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed illwill52c400.12$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.481,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed ex-Zero Tenacity31c400$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27676546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-Zero Tenacity31c360.74$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.245,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe416…7fc0backed ex-Zero Tenacity79c339.92$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.585156.9%29 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked ex-Zero Tenacity16c293.88$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.451,07832%345 W · 733 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe62c…d9a6backed ex-Zero Tenacity67c284.94$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6610151.5%52 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfde…8ad8backed illwill34c271$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.147546.7%35 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d1…ee7abacked ex-Zero Tenacity68c268.87$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3722454.5%122 W · 102 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed illwill29c262$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9855738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked illwill45c254.38$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.394,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed ex-Zero Tenacity62c216.68$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9338037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed illwill23c210.34$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7266436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed ex-Zero Tenacity42c202.57$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.571,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51d7…f1dbbacked ex-Zero Tenacity55c178.16$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.173046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed ex-Zero Tenacity25c176$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1324247.6%20 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ex-Zero Tenacity44c173.49$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.564,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07f7…9a03backed ex-Zero Tenacity67c164.01$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.161172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+48.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1788…aa80backed ex-Zero Tenacity63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.732975.9%22 W · 7 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+31.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xdff5…7bd9backed illwill53c156.94$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.184344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c61…db4bbacked ex-Zero Tenacity65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.852065%13 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed illwill15c150.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6242427.1%115 W · 309 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked illwill78c150.15$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7233060.9%201 W · 129 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34cc…d703backed illwill69c145.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick72cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed illwill57c142.55$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6562350.9%317 W · 306 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed illwill60c139.27$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6198856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ex-Zero Tenacity32c135.4$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.072,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed illwill56c132.57$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0448635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1ee…0267backed illwill58c126.41$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5918054.4%98 W · 82 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked illwill72c123$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.758745.5%267 W · 320 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity77c113$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.852,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ex-Zero Tenacity44c107.82$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.736,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed illwill49c104.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.961,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked ex-Zero Tenacity22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7891945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed illwill72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7244552.4%233 W · 212 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c67…a479backed illwill47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4720258.9%119 W · 83 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked illwill47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710454.8%57 W · 47 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed ex-Zero Tenacity30c92.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8665946.6%307 W · 352 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf099…d75cbacked ex-Zero Tenacity54c92.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.66567.7%44 W · 21 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+12.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed illwill46c92.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4511354%61 W · 52 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed illwill41c90$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.357322.3%128 W · 445 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked ex-Zero Tenacity27c89.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.430545.9%140 W · 165 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc400…21a7backed ex-Zero Tenacity55c89.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.866946.4%32 W · 37 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked illwill40c87.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.264,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed ex-Zero Tenacity42c87.36$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.342,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked illwill13c85.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3811221.4%24 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dcd…25e8backed illwill47c85.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404136.6%15 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9118…4db8backed ex-Zero Tenacity38c84.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.221540%6 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+76.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x542a…0312backed illwill28c77.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7210232.4%33 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97c4…9991backed ex-Zero Tenacity78c77.18$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1812155.4%67 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5046…a07ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity34c72.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.87074.3%52 W · 18 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab87…117ebacked illwill27c70.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1917449.4%86 W · 88 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef0…88abbacked ex-Zero Tenacity30c67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474537.8%17 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed illwill58c66.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4842757.8%247 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked illwill69c66.03$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5639847.7%190 W · 208 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed ex-Zero Tenacity64c60.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8364046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf76…ffeabacked illwill19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2322837.3%85 W · 143 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed ex-Zero Tenacity47c54.42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.912,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed ex-Zero Tenacity22c52.95$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.349935.1%175 W · 324 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6188…0a91backed illwill61c49.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed illwill64c48.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6528173%205 W · 76 L+21.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked ex-Zero Tenacity53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.171,04357.3%598 W · 445 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x209f…7a55backed ex-Zero Tenacity30c46.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.933043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6964…a82fbacked illwill26c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.861428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-43.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed illwill69c42.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0526075%195 W · 65 L+23.6wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f53…d5abbacked ex-Zero Tenacity53c42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7432649.7%162 W · 164 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f7…3407backed illwill37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.721070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b7b…cf84backed ex-Zero Tenacity71c38.34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.953100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed illwill77c38.21$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4836749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1e…2a7dbacked illwill59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204858.3%28 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e11…ccbcbacked ex-Zero Tenacity32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+94%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.