TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Rome: Aurora Zantedeschi vs Martina Trevisan

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Martina Trevisanof Aurora Zantedeschi, Martina Trevisan
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,563 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Aurora Zantedeschi10c19,258$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.498,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Aurora Zantedeschi16c8,827$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.7211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Aurora Zantedeschi11c7,847$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.453,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Martina Trevisan78c7,656$5,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.2593740.6%380 W · 557 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Martina Trevisan64c5,150$3,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,829.284,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Aurora Zantedeschi20c4,834$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.596,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Aurora Zantedeschi54c2,397$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.8930542.6%130 W · 175 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Aurora Zantedeschi36c2,267$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.124,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Martina Trevisan71c1,950$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.644,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0e1…ba6dbacked Martina Trevisan73c1,436$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.85683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick75cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Martina Trevisan65c770.83$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.893,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ca4…348fbacked Aurora Zantedeschi26c763.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029443.5%128 W · 166 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Martina Trevisan46c500$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.648551.8%44 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Aurora Zantedeschi11c457.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.314,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Aurora Zantedeschi44c389.66$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.4555241.3%228 W · 324 L-2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf9…8292backed Martina Trevisan48c365.54$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.5658857.7%339 W · 249 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Aurora Zantedeschi46c326.53$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora Zantedeschi26c325$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.459,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Aurora Zantedeschi44c320.89$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.194,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb20d…83aebacked Aurora Zantedeschi44c307$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.081060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe857…7b3bbacked Aurora Zantedeschi10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3083823.2%194 W · 644 L-58.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x57ab…68b6backed Aurora Zantedeschi28c282.14$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7911214.3%16 W · 96 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Aurora Zantedeschi11c272.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Aurora Zantedeschi24c266.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8939751.4%204 W · 193 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed Martina Trevisan45c254.39$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.752828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Martina Trevisan76c242.01$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.251,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e39…fe16backed Aurora Zantedeschi14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2871021.3%151 W · 559 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Aurora Zantedeschi25c194.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.971,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Aurora Zantedeschi44c193.3$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0543242.4%183 W · 249 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1207…9795backed Martina Trevisan48c192.3$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Martina Trevisan45c191.66$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.122842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Aurora Zantedeschi42c178.84$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.112,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Aurora Zantedeschi26c177.94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.771,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Aurora Zantedeschi12c169.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7639451.3%202 W · 192 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4738…9cfbbacked Aurora Zantedeschi37c163.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6435747.9%171 W · 186 L+16.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Aurora Zantedeschi44c158$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5226546.4%123 W · 142 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dcb…9f08backed Aurora Zantedeschi16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520635.9%74 W · 132 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed Martina Trevisan51c156.06$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4716755.7%93 W · 74 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Martina Trevisan78c149.33$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.585,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed Martina Trevisan77c130.94$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.126855.9%38 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74fc…492cbacked Martina Trevisan79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5817972.6%130 W · 49 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Aurora Zantedeschi41c125$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.251,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Martina Trevisan79c123$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.834,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd9…039bbacked Aurora Zantedeschi21c119.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00838.3%386 W · 622 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1aa…9359backed Aurora Zantedeschi19c113.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.420535.1%72 W · 133 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb41e…db27backed Martina Trevisan42c110$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.813050.8%66 W · 64 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x615d…bd5bbacked Martina Trevisan55c105.53$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.494456.8%25 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd6…d4a0backed Martina Trevisan44c100.41$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2411244.6%50 W · 62 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb344…0e61backed Aurora Zantedeschi10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Aurora Zantedeschi25c97.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.378,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Martina Trevisan59c84.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.711,04236.5%380 W · 662 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Martina Trevisan44c83.57$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.849252.4%258 W · 234 L+28.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Martina Trevisan54c81.94$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.692,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed Martina Trevisan75c77$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2592674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Martina Trevisan52c76.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.491,54149.2%758 W · 783 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e2…f6fbbacked Martina Trevisan42c73.96$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Martina Trevisan58c73.23$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7690152.3%471 W · 430 L-2.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Aurora Zantedeschi22c69.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.171,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Aurora Zantedeschi45c66.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc19…31c4backed Martina Trevisan47c64.91$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1332546.2%150 W · 175 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eef…5275backed Martina Trevisan78c64.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1136378.2%284 W · 79 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick77cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd1…f311backed Martina Trevisan59c62.71$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7125551%130 W · 125 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84a9…6d37backed Martina Trevisan42c62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Aurora Zantedeschi43c60.69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.882,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Aurora Zantedeschi34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.492352.5%485 W · 438 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc95d…d369backed Aurora Zantedeschi34c56.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3117050.6%86 W · 84 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Martina Trevisan54c53.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5248245.6%220 W · 262 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Aurora Zantedeschi43c53.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.887,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Martina Trevisan58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Aurora Zantedeschi31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.56,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Martina Trevisan61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.526535.5%94 W · 171 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked Aurora Zantedeschi42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2157449.1%282 W · 292 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Aurora Zantedeschi44c45.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.242,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Aurora Zantedeschi44c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.551,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x074c…771cbacked Martina Trevisan73c41.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.249361.3%57 W · 36 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Martina Trevisan57c40.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.273048.8%356 W · 374 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d7…f69dbacked Aurora Zantedeschi42c39.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.428444%37 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Aurora Zantedeschi42c39.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4278847.5%374 W · 414 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2272…95a2backed Martina Trevisan56c39.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.167262.5%45 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Martina Trevisan52c36.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.412,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Martina Trevisan55c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.751,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Martina Trevisan48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.66162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3a2…b515backed Martina Trevisan55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.59360.2%56 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x091a…8287backed Aurora Zantedeschi42c29.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2611948.7%58 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Aurora Zantedeschi41c29.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.923742.6%101 W · 136 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Martina Trevisan57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3227853.2%148 W · 130 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Martina Trevisan56c24.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6383447.5%396 W · 438 L-2.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Martina Trevisan57c24.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.362,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b9e…cb21backed Martina Trevisan57c21.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.113559.3%80 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Martina Trevisan55c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4585748.2%413 W · 444 L+33.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d10…b3d0backed Martina Trevisan53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.482159.4%488 W · 333 L+3.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880b…4f34backed Martina Trevisan55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4043…b616backed Martina Trevisan55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+49.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f92…7379backed Martina Trevisan68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.418068.9%124 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Martina Trevisan68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.452,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Martina Trevisan57c17.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5754746.8%256 W · 291 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ac2…4fd8backed Martina Trevisan58c17.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.315860.3%35 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Martina Trevisan78c14.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.122,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.