Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa953f24169f04c86e756900927ce5e09f0f7fc73d740b8ccdfbe6ec925841d51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 6c | 869.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 378.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 48c | 364$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.58 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 64c | 332.03$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 61c | 317$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.46 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked Yes | 64c | 315.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 240.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 52c | 233.32$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 231.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 26c | 206.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 63c | 175.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes | 57c | 157.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 43c | 152.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 39c | 136.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 77c | 128.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 127.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 47c | 121.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed No | 23c | 120.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 69c | 119.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 68c | 109.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 92.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 85.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 64c | 78.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 78.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 13c | 77.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 77c | 72.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 36c | 70.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 36c | 68.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 33c | 66.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 65.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 33c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 61c | 59.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 27c | 56.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 54.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed Yes | 74c | 51.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 52c | 45.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 40c | 41.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 33c | 38.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 56c | 32.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 45c | 31.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 34c | 30.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 75c | 28.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…4f98backed No | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 26.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 77c | 25.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 61c | 24.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 59c | 24.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 56c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 49c | 21.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 50c | 21.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…f2acbacked No | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 62c | 19.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.