MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9dba06313b8c01a997973f0a00919a16e56d5325d1a5d508c7bcbad148982bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 10,774$6,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,732.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 45c | 8,563$3,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,853.27 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 45c | 1,005$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.25 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 353.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 335.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 46c | 283.82$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 54c | 282$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 37c | 270.78$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 55c | 233$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 47c | 221.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…2b2cbacked Under | 53c | 210.89$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 18c | 209.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Under | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 162.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 145$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 118$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 46c | 108.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 47c | 104.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 24c | 94.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae9c…d59dbacked Under | 55c | 89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 47c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 23c | 68.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under | 54c | 47.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 53c | 47.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 71c | 39.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 53c | 38.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 56c | 25.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 47c | 21.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 3.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.