MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8803689232edf3d68fc313eecbfb5afcc9a6dc6791824f31c3aaa478f3e9992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 2,600$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.94 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 2,344$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 1,300$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…2d0fbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 822.27$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 791.72$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 715$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 520$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 418$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.47 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 363.95$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.73 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 275.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 59c | 269.05$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.55 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 253.33$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.01 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 183.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 173.94$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 159.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 153.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 125.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…d6e9backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Miami Marlins | 59c | 107.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 104.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 98.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 98.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 84.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 80.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 79.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 78.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…3728backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 70.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ac…efa9backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 52.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 52.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0225…7bebbacked Atlanta Braves | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 46.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…30b1backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 29.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 29.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 24.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 24.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 22.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Atlanta Braves | 52c | 22.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Miami Marlins | 55c | 19.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 3.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.