Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9e656131b983ac21b2e855f4d360e0b0e1006a20135ed08bd5db45c8c490475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 575.44$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 9c | 543.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 437.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 233.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 224.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 27c | 207.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 176.27$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 7c | 163.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked No | 72c | 139.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 9c | 132.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 13c | 119.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 25c | 97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 76c | 91.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 23c | 89.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 27c | 89.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 87.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 25c | 80.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 17c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 75.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 75.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f095backed Yes | 27c | 68.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 67.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…c84fbacked No | 79c | 62.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 58.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 28c | 51.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 46.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 43.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 38.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 36.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 30.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 28.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 21.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 77c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 77c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 79c | 16.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 15.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.