Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03df126a8fc881574b9c8a66cbcef0129bd529f6e8864895e9ede34a7c5cb3f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 590.46$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 38c | 234.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 210.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 207$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 190.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 174$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 165.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 51c | 155.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 40c | 154.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 37c | 148.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 148.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 146.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 40c | 129$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 127.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 119.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 116.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 44c | 102.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 43c | 100.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 99.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 37c | 92.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 36c | 89.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 85.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 66.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 66.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 37c | 65.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 63.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 39c | 62.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 57c | 60.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 39c | 60.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 56.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 52.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 44.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 43.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 64c | 43.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed No | 52c | 43.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 43.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f095backed Yes | 49c | 41.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 40.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…b706backed No | 64c | 39.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 40c | 39.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 39.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 36.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…35f2backed Yes | 38c | 36.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 48c | 36.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 39c | 35.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 71c | 34.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 57c | 30.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 29.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…f3dbbacked No | 57c | 29.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 44c | 29.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 40c | 29.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed Yes | 62c | 28.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…db6bbacked Yes | 38c | 27.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1072…b115backed Yes | 37c | 26.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4398…47abbacked No | 65c | 25.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 51cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 64c | 24.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 63c | 23.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4e…82ccbacked No | 64c | 23.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…cb37backed Yes | 48c | 20.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 61c | 19.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 63c | 18.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 69c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 58c | 18.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.