Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4652f0cb6baf077e5e585ba38614dbb76a54ea1d1687bc5212b1dca01f7a6a2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed Yes | 66c | 662.54$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.37 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 526.92$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 48c | 399.98$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 329.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 18c | 232.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 55c | 230.04$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 198.58$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 190.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 145.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 28c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 20c | 116.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 11c | 115.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 26c | 111.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 105.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 101.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 68c | 93.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 86.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 85.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 81.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 18c | 79.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 69.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 57c | 68.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…625cbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 50c | 66.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed No | 70c | 56.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 54.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 46c | 48.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 46.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 45.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked No | 52c | 45.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 43.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 46c | 43.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 43.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 56c | 42.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…cb37backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 59c | 31.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked No | 59c | 31.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 33c | 30.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 25.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 52c | 23.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed No | 57c | 22.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 76c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c3b4backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 71c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed No | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.