Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9f833ce90b4d133776088f0a3bbfa1ee3c9a222b57827542fde358206056b97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 64c | 951.01$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.92 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 17c | 457.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.81 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 453.13$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.41 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 438.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 426$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.23 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 367.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.57 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 35c | 354.29$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.29 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 290.96$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.92 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 287.79$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.48 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 267$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.39 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 21c | 229$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.01 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 73c | 150.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.77 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50e…efe5backed Yes | 21c | 142.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +208%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 128$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 123.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 25c | 122.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 32c | 120.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 18c | 108.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 101$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 19c | 97.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 89.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 16c | 88.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 88.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 31c | 87.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 64c | 87.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 85.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…87c1backed Yes | 42c | 81.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 79.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 1,065 | 35.1%374 W · 691 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 19c | 63.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 62.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 41c | 59.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 37c | 57.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 725 | 42.2%306 W · 419 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 55.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 53.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…4d53backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 29c | 49.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 48.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 33c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 35c | 45.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 42.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 40.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 272 | 44.5%121 W · 151 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 79c | 37.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 96 | 83.3%80 W · 16 L | +20.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 37.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 46c | 33.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed Yes | 34c | 32.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 36c | 31.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 40c | 30.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,658 | 27.7%460 W · 1,198 L | +119.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 37c | 28.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 80c | 28.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 26.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 72c | 26.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 601 | 23.6%142 W · 459 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 67c | 24.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 67c | 22.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 19.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 17.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 51 | 76.5%39 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.