TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RED Canidsof FURIA Esports, RED Canids
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$208,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$253,936

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,771 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb10b…0b04backed FURIA Esports30c25,202$7,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,567.6151044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed FURIA Esports1c15,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed FURIA Esports42c15,000$6,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,275.7264455.6%358 W · 286 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x663d…2dd4backed RED Canids76c13,224$10,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,175.1117155%94 W · 77 L+16.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked RED Canids75c12,968$9,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,209.031,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed RED Canids54c10,405$5,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,826.0227957.7%161 W · 118 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed FURIA Esports30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9959750.4%301 W · 296 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed FURIA Esports20c9,800$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.271,01647%478 W · 538 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked RED Canids66c6,677$4,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.522,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed RED Canids58c5,772$3,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.241,44157.4%827 W · 614 L+35.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked FURIA Esports47c5,745$2,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,675.421,52254.7%832 W · 690 L+37.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed RED Canids59c5,671$3,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.871,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x717c…83adbacked RED Canids75c5,550$4,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.785100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked RED Canids73c5,430$3,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.751,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked FURIA Esports47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3501,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked FURIA Esports38c4,372$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.9888544.3%392 W · 493 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked RED Canids58c4,284$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.2890348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked RED Canids71c3,659$2,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.1467853.4%362 W · 316 L+25.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked RED Canids60c2,804$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.3870456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed RED Canids53c2,800$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3071,23249.4%609 W · 623 L+13.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked FURIA Esports23c2,621$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.8210024%24 W · 76 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-46.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed RED Canids69c2,603$1,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.8289746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked FURIA Esports27c2,596$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.051,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3ac…88c9backed FURIA Esports24c2,500$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5983551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed FURIA Esports24c2,383$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.041,49248.4%722 W · 770 L+47.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked RED Canids77c1,735$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.382,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed RED Canids65c1,548$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.51,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed FURIA Esports45c1,485$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.172,17853.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L+61.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed RED Canids77c1,351$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.2114930.9%46 W · 103 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d2c…3ec7backed RED Canids76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.7939960.4%241 W · 158 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd459…4757backed RED Canids59c1,275$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.7557754.9%317 W · 260 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72a9…5225backed FURIA Esports27c1,234$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.358739.1%34 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed RED Canids77c1,220$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.241,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed FURIA Esports36c1,171$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.421,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed FURIA Esports41c1,145$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.4665047.4%308 W · 342 L+24.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed FURIA Esports26c1,129$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.491,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed RED Canids63c1,104$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.4385852.3%449 W · 409 L+35.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked FURIA Esports11c1,071$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.21,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked FURIA Esports28c1,065$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.2816555.2%91 W · 74 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked RED Canids76c1,054$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.8343358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked FURIA Esports21c1,047$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.771,00948.2%486 W · 523 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked FURIA Esports22c1,032$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.971,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked RED Canids75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed FURIA Esports33c993.52$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33028042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed RED Canids58c982.29$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.561,07147.1%504 W · 567 L+2.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed RED Canids64c900$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32464553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed FURIA Esports26c868.75$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.8962158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3cd…9f3ebacked FURIA Esports50c806.1$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40015357.5%88 W · 65 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed FURIA Esports47c800$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3731,80251.2%923 W · 879 L+53.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed RED Canids63c770.27$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28555056.7%312 W · 238 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed RED Canids77c748$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.0874250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked RED Canids75c700$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.841,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FURIA Esports41c700$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2872,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed FURIA Esports49c699.99$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3431,18751.9%616 W · 571 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FURIA Esports26c678.75$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.832,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28fd…00d0backed RED Canids75c677.54$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.5425659%151 W · 105 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked RED Canids60c663.76$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.8295951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked RED Canids79c632.8$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.813538.5%52 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked FURIA Esports38c630.35$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5330856.5%174 W · 134 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed RED Canids64c570.15$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.6621948.4%106 W · 113 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed FURIA Esports42c560.32$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.650749.7%252 W · 255 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed RED Canids65c531.69$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.5482953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x217a…5dfabacked RED Canids80c531.25$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2547557.7%274 W · 201 L-27.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FURIA Esports23c529.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.663,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c3f…f75dbacked RED Canids80c500.41$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.4119151.8%99 W · 92 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed FURIA Esports8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4094237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb003…d62dbacked FURIA Esports50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked RED Canids77c500$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1395541.7%398 W · 557 L-31.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed FURIA Esports23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11522035.9%79 W · 141 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed RED Canids64c468.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.751,22358.1%710 W · 513 L+43.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked RED Canids70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5726844%118 W · 150 L-37.1wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-26.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed RED Canids75c409.53$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7254246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed FURIA Esports25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10074344%327 W · 416 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed RED Canids70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12056650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed FURIA Esports30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12057151.5%294 W · 277 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78db…a291backed FURIA Esports21c391.3$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1710745.8%49 W · 58 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed FURIA Esports44c386.36$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17042847.9%205 W · 223 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked FURIA Esports26c376.16$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.281,45343.4%630 W · 823 L+106.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked RED Canids55c352$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.422336.8%82 W · 141 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed RED Canids72c349.12$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.428827.4%79 W · 209 L-30.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed RED Canids77c343.76$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.476642%322 W · 444 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked RED Canids69c343.62$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2199756.6%564 W · 433 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4e…6c11backed RED Canids52c341.87$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.136749.9%183 W · 184 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed FURIA Esports37c320.08$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11980750.8%410 W · 397 L+48.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed RED Canids49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15318436.4%67 W · 117 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked RED Canids70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907062.9%44 W · 26 L+7.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+39.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ea1…d143backed RED Canids76c298.68$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.682552%13 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed FURIA Esports48c280.6$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.011,24439.7%494 W · 750 L-69.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed FURIA Esports32c273.39$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4869841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed FURIA Esports37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed RED Canids72c259.97$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.371,57155.1%866 W · 705 L+80.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked FURIA Esports20c257.11$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5233125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d51…d971backed RED Canids79c254.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4467457.3%386 W · 288 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed FURIA Esports41c249.86$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.621,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked RED Canids51c235.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2990937.3%339 W · 570 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf301…4ce1backed FURIA Esports24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4821622.7%49 W · 167 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed RED Canids50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.165141.2%21 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x398d…b8d6backed RED Canids61c199.81$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8164451.2%330 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed RED Canids68c198$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3686451.4%444 W · 420 L+52.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e0f…0dcabacked FURIA Esports23c197.28$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.