Tennis · resolved market
ATP Cincinnati - Mensik vs. Nardi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaab7935e718d7e93e19fcf16a51fb5710f778077fe1affa1f422dc92a0cb4b82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nardiof Mensik, Nardi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $365,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef4…412cbacked Nardi | 24c | 110,505$26,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,001.35 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Nardi | 66c | 3,203$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.55 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Mensik | 64c | 2,500$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.9 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Nardi | 64c | 2,076$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Mensik | 26c | 1,709$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.86 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Mensik | 71c | 1,547$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Mensik | 67c | 1,490$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Mensik | 77c | 1,473$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.85 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…315dbacked Mensik | 42c | 1,060$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Mensik | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mensik | 77c | 888.33$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.68 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Nardi | 24c | 633.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.33 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Nardi | 41c | 628.68$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.92 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Mensik | 54c | 550$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mensik | 80c | 527$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.6 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Nardi | 39c | 500$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.13 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mensik | 75c | 476.87$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.19 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Nardi | 59c | 434.64$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nardi | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nardi | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Mensik | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Nardi | 45c | 300$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mensik | 38c | 267$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…e5f7backed Mensik | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mensik | 42c | 230.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…28ddbacked Nardi | 52c | 218.61$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Mensik | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Nardi | 21c | 200.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Mensik | 80c | 200.31$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed Mensik | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Mensik | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Nardi | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Nardi | 60c | 167.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mensik | 79c | 160$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nardi | 63c | 157.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…3e01backed Mensik | 61c | 152$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Mensik | 79c | 150$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mensik | 75c | 110.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Nardi | 43c | 105.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Nardi | 20c | 90$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Mensik | 37c | 84.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…facbbacked Mensik | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked Mensik | 72c | 69.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nardi | 39c | 64.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Nardi | 21c | 64.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Nardi | 23c | 51.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Mensik | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…3f01backed Mensik | 66c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…b890backed Nardi | 54c | 24.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Nardi | 63c | 21.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.