Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaabacb4e1b93000a623bf2628d5515b4d37a5fdf1f11de2de24f57901931a745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 16c | 783.07$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 230.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 163.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 156.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 150.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 39c | 147$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 31c | 119.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 51c | 118.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 36c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 109.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 103.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 94.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 71.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 69c | 70.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 66.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 65.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 51c | 60.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 42c | 59.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 42c | 47.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 45.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 64c | 44.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 44.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 41c | 41.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 39c | 39.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 31c | 39.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 36c | 39.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 38.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 39c | 37.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 36.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 41c | 36.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 36.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 61c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 32.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 72c | 31.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 48c | 31.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 30.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 50c | 30.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 63c | 29.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…c62bbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 27.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 68c | 26.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 59c | 24.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 51c | 20.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 53c | 19.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 59c | 19.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 71c | 18.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 18.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 64c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 79c | 15.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.