Spread: Newcastle (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab2bc339967387298ed10999940fe45fc17e5c9e05cc80197ca30ce54a90c730

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Tottenhamof Newcastle, Tottenham
Resolved: Dec 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $157,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $202,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,602 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4259…936fbacked Tottenham	71c	50,000$35,525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,474.61	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-52%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Newcastle	29c	21,980$6,357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,357.24	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Newcastle	29c	13,637$3,924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,923.73	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Newcastle	34c	13,098$4,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,425.25	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Newcastle	18c	9,300$1,635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,634.62	1,004	46.3%465 W · 539 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Tottenham	70c	5,853$4,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,728.54	109	62.4%68 W · 41 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Newcastle	29c	4,410$1,279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,279.04	401	50.1%201 W · 200 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Newcastle	28c	3,328$932 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$931.78	277	50.9%141 W · 136 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Tottenham	66c	2,997$1,978 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,019.12	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Newcastle	30c	2,185$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.95	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x753b…3d0fbacked Newcastle	31c	2,058$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.99	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.9wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5a81…aa82backed Tottenham	69c	1,995$1,376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$618.36	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Tottenham	72c	1,806$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$505.56	123	45.5%56 W · 67 L	-10.3wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Newcastle	31c	1,154$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.76	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Newcastle	28c	1,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	420	48.6%204 W · 216 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Newcastle	28c	999.45$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.56	113	24.8%28 W · 85 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Newcastle	30c	778.49$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.26	126	46.8%59 W · 67 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f8…09f7backed Tottenham	70c	720$504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	56cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Tottenham	67c	709.84$476 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.25	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+3.4wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+32.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb93b…454bbacked Newcastle	33c	606.06$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+5.8wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Newcastle	30c	566.62$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.69	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Newcastle	28c	547.41$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.28	218	53.2%116 W · 102 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Newcastle	30c	499.69$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.59	294	27.9%82 W · 212 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Tottenham	72c	416.67$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.67	157	57.3%90 W · 67 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Newcastle	32c	400$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa2da…7a09backed Newcastle	29c	387$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7826…20b1backed Newcastle	30c	333.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	33cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfe…8aaebacked Newcastle	30c	316.67$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Tottenham	69c	300$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	157	35.7%56 W · 101 L	+15.5wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Newcastle	31c	299.98$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.99	86	32.6%28 W · 58 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed Tottenham	72c	277.78$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.78	107	68.2%73 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Tottenham	69c	259.18$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.35	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked Newcastle	29c	199.98$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.99	180	52.2%94 W · 86 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Newcastle	30c	164.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	234	35.9%84 W · 150 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Newcastle	15c	153.33$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	153	47.7%73 W · 80 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Newcastle	21c	132.58$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.36	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc3…fce2backed Newcastle	10c	115.9$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	+8.1wins	+0.14per pick	39cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc4a6…6d23backed Newcastle	31c	114.39$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.23	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Newcastle	29c	104$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.78	541	28.3%153 W · 388 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Newcastle	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Tottenham	66c	100$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Newcastle	32c	93.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.33	116	28.4%33 W · 83 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Newcastle	28c	90$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.64	1,264	33.7%426 W · 838 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ea…21e1backed Newcastle	31c	87.27$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.42	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x716c…65cabacked Newcastle	33c	85$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.05	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a1…c0babacked Tottenham	67c	75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.75	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	62cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Newcastle	31c	64.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	38cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcad…0a68backed Newcastle	32c	62.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Tottenham	69c	57.97$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.97	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd88e…ef1bbacked Newcastle	31c	56.13$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Tottenham	67c	54$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.82	130	54.6%71 W · 59 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+15%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Newcastle	30c	53.19$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	259	49.4%128 W · 131 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Newcastle	33c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	228	34.2%78 W · 150 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fb…427abacked Tottenham	69c	46.57$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.44	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+58.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Newcastle	33c	45.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e0e…1512backed Newcastle	26c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	-6.4wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe83…3b00backed Newcastle	29c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	63	38.1%24 W · 39 L	-8.0wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Tottenham	72c	27.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	289	50.9%147 W · 142 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7cf…7556backed Tottenham	72c	27.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Tottenham	68c	20.59$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.59	48	64.6%31 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a26…468abacked Tottenham	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e12…dd1dbacked Tottenham	70c	17.16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.16	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc65…49d8backed Tottenham	72c	14$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.92	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Newcastle (-1.5)this page
Newcastle vs. Tottenham: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Newcastle vs. Tottenham: O/U 1.5Over won
Newcastle vs. Tottenham: O/U 2.5Over won
Newcastle vs. Tottenham: O/U 3.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Newcastle (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event