Mls · resolved market
Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab2d295f98d1220b90315d38e6d72765d9f45471bd6ef2b36e5c9deef2d69086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 9,676$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.1 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 20c | 9,139$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.72 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 8c | 8,439$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.69 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 17c | 6,316$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.5 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 4,060$3,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.42 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6567…c807backed Yes | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 17c | 1,910$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.98 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,586$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.58 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,530$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.39 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 1,476$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.92 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 18c | 1,043$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.77 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 22c | 843.57$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.58 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 18c | 827.82$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.3 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 68c | 670.65$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.81 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…245ebacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 4c | 461.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 63c | 461.01$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.61 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 73c | 438.65$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 15c | 403.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 33c | 400$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 40c | 399.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…2922backed Yes | 14c | 358.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…a7f6backed Yes | 21c | 287.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 10c | 275.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 31c | 269$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 78c | 256$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 22c | 255$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 19c | 252.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 61c | 205.55$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 60c | 203.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 20c | 193.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Yes | 25c | 191$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Yes | 19c | 178.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 33cpaid | +103%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Yes | 21c | 161.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4284…4e8cbacked Yes | 18c | 148.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Yes | 22c | 137$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…233abacked Yes | 18c | 136.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 19c | 135.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +151%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf65f…134ebacked Yes | 23c | 128.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…a736backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 42c | 124$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…2b2fbacked Yes | 22c | 121.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…2ba2backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 80c | 110.47$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 19c | 101.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed No | 79c | 99.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 22c | 94.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 80c | 94.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 75c | 73.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…fcbbbacked No | 77c | 72.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed No | 60c | 71.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Yes | 17c | 61.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 20c | 55.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed No | 80c | 50.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 79cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…bbd2backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked No | 77c | 34.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 65c | 27.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed No | 79c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-07-22?Yes won
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-07-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.