TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,992

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,021 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9e7…ed80backed No67c1,400$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9386552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes37c953.3$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.2241845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes32c396.54$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.412,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes33c330$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.131936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2011,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c271.07$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.35,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No11c265.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3761820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes33c250$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.536150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes33c241.07$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.521,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked No63c225$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.759053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No7c222.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes53c217.38$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.996,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No63c214$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.823,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes51c179.68$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3240132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x733c…c0a7backed No63c155$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.655538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xed01…89b7backed Yes38c152.97$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.67552%39 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No56c150.71$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.788,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No63c150$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c146.9$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.545,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No51c141$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.585,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No58c135.2$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes60c128.24$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5375546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c124.22$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes41c118.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.892,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No45c117.26$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1416847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes38c112.01$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4154547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes44c105$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.812351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6197152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c94.35$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.649,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No23c82.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.951,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No42c80.17$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9165353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No65c80$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5240352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed No19c77.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9158732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes77c76.64$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.555,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes40c75.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.941,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes51c71.65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1136648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes77c64.3$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.820662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes67c63.94$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8257948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes32c58.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7249551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c58.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x427a…4e18backed Yes33c54.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.387229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes32c53.65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4845253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes58c51.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4311650%58 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No59c51.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No56c50.24$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.131,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2285049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2816148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes45c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6730849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7faa…c757backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2814745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5f5…923abacked Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.53740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354654.3%25 W · 21 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2818254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c49.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.237,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No42c49.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.718142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed No40c46.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.669752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c46.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9880050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes42c44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7421451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes43c43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5117637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes34c43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.524,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes32c42.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.962,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No43c42.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.014,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a13…72cebacked Yes34c41.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.34325.6%11 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda62…04c8backed No67c40.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb814…dd31backed Yes42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.211154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes41c39.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.65457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes51c39.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2513959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No65c38.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2545675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked No60c33.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.216243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75fd…7265backed Yes65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick69cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc848…537bbacked Yes52c30.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.487958.2%46 W · 33 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.867633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.471649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed No51c28.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4712334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No62c27.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.257,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No57c25.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.741,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No41c25.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4453855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No64c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1616453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c23.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.264,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes57c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4649750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No66c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8658358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.614161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x890c…9068backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.13,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No64c19.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7213845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No59c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0394066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes66c15.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.431,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No66c15.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.143848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7274…c205backed Yes72c14.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421361%130 W · 83 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.