Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab81e98d3ba0906b447dd4d6ea9e309942982519845ad59b1c81e8040d9f9078
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 31c | 1,210$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.96 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 749.88$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.18 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 702$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.54 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cc…7a02backed No | 67c | 604.91$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 29c | 550.37$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 520.91$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.16 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 347.03$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 331$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 321$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 5c | 302.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 236.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 36c | 235.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 225.86$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 181.19$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 166.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 148.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 69c | 145.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 145.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 71c | 142.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 33c | 127.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 112.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 37c | 111.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 78c | 102.18$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…6c19backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 35c | 99.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 92.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 90.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 27c | 89.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 37c | 89.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 87.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 79.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 31c | 73.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 72.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 71.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 37c | 67.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 66c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 63.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 63.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 62.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 69c | 62.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 71c | 58.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 58.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…4e3bbacked Yes | 57c | 57.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 37c | 56.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 56.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbb…6cb4backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…60bcbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 67c | 52.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed Yes | 46c | 51.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 50.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 40c | 49.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 44.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 43.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 43.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 41.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 42c | 41.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 49c | 40.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 48c | 40.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 38.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 31c | 32.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…1263backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa767…3d7fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 66c | 30.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 53c | 29.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 29.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…838abacked No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 28.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 67c | 25.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 72c | 25.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 51c | 24.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 52c | 23.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 65c | 23.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 59c | 22.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 22.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 66c | 22.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…1ababacked No | 66c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 63c | 20.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 63c | 20.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 20.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.