Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d847be7235724c0ae58e1ad5ba0ee43394ee7fae02d11fcf701eebd5ec6a56d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 787.4$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.46 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 683.5$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.29 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 341$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 292$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.76 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaf…8a0abacked Yes | 36c | 278.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 26c | 231.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 214.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 70c | 205.3$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 29c | 189.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 63c | 180.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 31c | 177.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 173.61$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 160$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 146.04$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 24c | 129.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 70c | 116.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 36c | 113.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 111.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 107.07$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 103.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 95.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 91.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 83.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 18c | 81.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbb…6cb4backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 29c | 55.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 55.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f6…09bcbacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 73c | 52.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 66c | 43.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 42.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 40.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 40.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 38.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 63c | 34.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 65c | 29.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 28.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 74c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 73c | 15.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.