Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddbddaa2f21d327508a17ad4012c8ed0c818fc8eff91a231e95e9fe2ee4a8a69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 894.37$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.9 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 481.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 360.89$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 349.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 8c | 272.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 203.6$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 194.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 69c | 185$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 8c | 179.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 163.58$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 19c | 156.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 78c | 154.75$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…8360backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…bbc3backed Yes | 14c | 143.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 20c | 136.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.57 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 24c | 133.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 130.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 24c | 119.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 26c | 111.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 105.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 44c | 101.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…4e3bbacked Yes | 62c | 100.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 100.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 13c | 96.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 84.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 23c | 74.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 70.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 15c | 69.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 38c | 67.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 39c | 58.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 26c | 58.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 73c | 53.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 46c | 53.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 40c | 49.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 72c | 47.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 27c | 38.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 42c | 37.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…bea0backed Yes | 45c | 35.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 49c | 33.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 54c | 25.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 25.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.