Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabcc7739ebbc6036c6e8e834bcb6f63c742ec58f9f3b44317f89d02e496b153b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 53c | 1,001$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.48 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 58c | 264.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 27c | 211.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.19 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 16c | 145.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 74c | 143.55$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 11c | 128$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…eddfbacked Yes | 51c | 127.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 121.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 77c | 118.81$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 35c | 117.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked Yes | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 107.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 19c | 98.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 71c | 96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 74c | 95.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 55c | 94.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 91.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 74.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 47c | 72.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 69.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 60.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 35c | 56.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 27c | 54.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 44c | 47.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 36.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 65c | 31.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…e41cbacked Yes | 47c | 31.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…0ce5backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 26.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 73c | 22.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…4796backed Yes | 62c | 22.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 61c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 79c | 14.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.