Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabd08e95cc393b8986b5e6024a415cd5833a7152106df7af60e14a4e8c391578
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 439.64$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 327$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 69c | 284.98$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.29 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9728…e944backed Yes | 7c | 230$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 209.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 54c | 207.28$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 69c | 184.66$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 30c | 184.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 42c | 153.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 74c | 149.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 137.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 41c | 122.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 48c | 122$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 32c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 74c | 117.29$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed No | 37c | 110.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed No | 42c | 101.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…fa73backed No | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 42c | 94.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 76c | 87.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 82.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 62c | 81.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 72c | 76.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 28c | 73.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 51c | 70.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 22c | 65.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 19c | 63.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 49c | 60.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 58.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 30c | 50.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 25c | 49.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 62c | 47.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 67c | 45.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 44.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 49c | 40.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 44c | 36.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 42c | 34.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 32c | 32.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 67c | 29.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 27.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 25.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 48c | 24.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 23.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 72c | 20.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 16.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 77c | 15.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.