Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: GIANTX vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabd7acf97c2dfecd6784dbfe96b886048ab6041b71ac3610db094a44eb65c184
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eternal Fireof GIANTX, Eternal Fire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d93…2cf1backed Eternal Fire | 42c | 5,968$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,467.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee0…d4f0backed GIANTX | 0c | 5,003$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked GIANTX | 59c | 3,562$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.29 | 943 | 61.2%577 W · 366 L | +58.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed GIANTX | 60c | 3,373$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020.81 | 301 | 47.2%142 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed GIANTX | 50c | 2,493$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.05 | 621 | 56.4%350 W · 271 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked GIANTX | 61c | 2,164$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.98 | 684 | 58.3%399 W · 285 L | +56.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked GIANTX | 67c | 1,338$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.63 | 655 | 59.4%389 W · 266 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked GIANTX | 63c | 1,291$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef2…98e0backed GIANTX | 69c | 1,152$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed GIANTX | 55c | 1,100$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed GIANTX | 65c | 1,082$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.06 | 531 | 59.1%314 W · 217 L | +41.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…922bbacked GIANTX | 55c | 914.17$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…bd26backed Eternal Fire | 17c | 883.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.05 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Eternal Fire | 42c | 831.35$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.89 | 785 | 62.8%493 W · 292 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed GIANTX | 62c | 831.22$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.21 | 563 | 57.9%326 W · 237 L | +36.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…33d5backed Eternal Fire | 47c | 810$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Eternal Fire | 36c | 789.7$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.15 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…29e5backed GIANTX | 48c | 715.7$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed GIANTX | 39c | 700$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 409 | 44.3%181 W · 228 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…3d79backed Eternal Fire | 39c | 699.99$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed GIANTX | 50c | 666.59$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.29 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked GIANTX | 64c | 628.78$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.67 | 533 | 55.3%295 W · 238 L | +24.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…e454backed GIANTX | 50c | 488$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.69 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Eternal Fire | 34c | 456.33$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.85 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Eternal Fire | 52c | 416.29$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.82 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…a8f2backed Eternal Fire | 61c | 408.16$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.16 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Eternal Fire | 39c | 364$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.24 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed GIANTX | 69c | 311.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.76 | 291 | 51.5%150 W · 141 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed GIANTX | 50c | 310$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 534 | 42.1%225 W · 309 L | -15.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Eternal Fire | 41c | 300.69$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.25 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Eternal Fire | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…fe9abacked Eternal Fire | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed GIANTX | 70c | 274.14$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.92 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Eternal Fire | 33c | 259.68$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.24 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Eternal Fire | 27c | 255.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.57 | 174 | 48.3%84 W · 90 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…d62dbacked Eternal Fire | 49c | 254$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Eternal Fire | 52c | 234.34$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 428 | 40%171 W · 257 L | -22.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Eternal Fire | 37c | 227.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.95 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e97…0bd0backed GIANTX | 55c | 218.75$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked GIANTX | 46c | 215$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | +15.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e51…71d4backed Eternal Fire | 46c | 209.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…9f91backed Eternal Fire | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 600 | 22.7%136 W · 464 L | -26.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Eternal Fire | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…49bbbacked GIANTX | 65c | 146.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Eternal Fire | 42c | 142.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 450 | 33.8%152 W · 298 L | -35.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Eternal Fire | 34c | 141.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Eternal Fire | 37c | 136$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked Eternal Fire | 24c | 131.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed Eternal Fire | 50c | 126.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 279 | 56.6%158 W · 121 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed GIANTX | 66c | 122.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Eternal Fire | 35c | 113.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…1f47backed GIANTX | 22c | 110.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…75a1backed Eternal Fire | 35c | 106.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4361…9408backed GIANTX | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked Eternal Fire | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 267 | 58.8%157 W · 110 L | +18.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…aab7backed GIANTX | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…be4ebacked Eternal Fire | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed GIANTX | 63c | 93.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Eternal Fire | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 244 | 57.8%141 W · 103 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed GIANTX | 76c | 85.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed GIANTX | 62c | 83.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Eternal Fire | 41c | 82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 664 | 38.1%253 W · 411 L | -31.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…5f66backed GIANTX | 51c | 80.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Eternal Fire | 49c | 80.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked GIANTX | 68c | 67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Eternal Fire | 30c | 56.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Eternal Fire | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked GIANTX | 47c | 45.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…755fbacked Eternal Fire | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9c…50d8backed Eternal Fire | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 102 | 17.6%18 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked Eternal Fire | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 519 | 48.4%251 W · 268 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Eternal Fire | 38c | 35.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…245ebacked GIANTX | 65c | 35.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…d719backed GIANTX | 61c | 33.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f42…7d52backed GIANTX | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97e…dff7backed Eternal Fire | 58c | 26.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Eternal Fire | 48c | 26.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 208 | 40.9%85 W · 123 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…e2c8backed GIANTX | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5959…4c4cbacked GIANTX | 54c | 22.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: GIANTX vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5)Eternal Fire won
- Map Handicap: GX (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5)Eternal Fire won
- Valorant: GIANTX vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group OmegaEternal Fire won
- Valorant: GIANTX vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 WinnerEternal Fire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.