TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LGD Gamingof LGD Gaming, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$565,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$643,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $565,880 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 388 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ25c39,571$9,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,814.6171143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed LGD Gaming71c25,683$18,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,520.6896557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked LGD Gaming70c25,628$18,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,565.9928159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed LGD Gaming70c19,878$13,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,040.911,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked MOUZ28c18,571$5,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,266.5223435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed LGD Gaming74c17,332$12,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,425.131471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f8a…8a18backed MOUZ30c16,602$5,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,029.321618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick37cpaid-54.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed LGD Gaming71c15,622$11,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,548.131346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed LGD Gaming72c13,279$9,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,739.856955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked LGD Gaming72c13,201$9,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,696.391,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde82…705dbacked MOUZ30c13,200$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9604942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed LGD Gaming70c13,200$9,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9605145.1%23 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked LGD Gaming71c11,734$8,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,452.8713960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ1c11,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked MOUZ30c10,933$3,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,243.4117452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked MOUZ28c10,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8007236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed MOUZ18c9,829$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.5350832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed MOUZ0c9,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.540014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked MOUZ30c8,448$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50039343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed MOUZ29c8,210$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,380.922644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked MOUZ4c7,955$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.0423561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed MOUZ28c7,061$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.6814646.6%68 W · 78 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed MOUZ30c6,711$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.5716553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked MOUZ4c6,500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24569835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked MOUZ15c6,016$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89525246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed LGD Gaming72c6,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked MOUZ8c5,763$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.3379859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed LGD Gaming72c5,517$3,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,544.8718356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed MOUZ29c5,075$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.130336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed LGD Gaming72c4,522$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.4730357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed LGD Gaming73c4,500$3,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22022663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed MOUZ2c4,460$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9857654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed LGD Gaming72c4,167$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.229556.8%54 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked LGD Gaming79c4,129$3,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.2135960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed LGD Gaming72c4,105$2,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.8424153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked MOUZ29c4,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.9956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed MOUZ16c3,890$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.8152046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed MOUZ29c3,848$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.6835737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed MOUZ28c3,832$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.0769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed LGD Gaming71c3,750$2,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.527153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked MOUZ18c3,720$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.8525446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29ee…a16fbacked MOUZ1c3,666$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.13737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked MOUZ29c3,545$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03122340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec7f…ab9ebacked MOUZ30c3,472$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.421838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed LGD Gaming72c3,455$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.2321158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed LGD Gaming70c3,405$2,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.9431248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked MOUZ31c3,270$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked LGD Gaming71c3,211$2,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.635951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ26c3,186$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.291,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x332f…1ee8backed MOUZ29c3,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8609253.3%49 W · 43 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ19c2,916$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55072035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed LGD Gaming72c2,750$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77010651.9%55 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed LGD Gaming72c2,655$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.7336248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed LGD Gaming71c2,501$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.2929348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked LGD Gaming70c2,500$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7429042.2%38 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed MOUZ30c2,500$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.991,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ26c2,500$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.991,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed MOUZ30c2,472$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+60.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked MOUZ4c2,359$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012060.8%73 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked LGD Gaming72c2,350$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65880256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed MOUZ14c2,334$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.3429143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed MOUZ10c2,292$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.4233453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23b…7c42backed MOUZ12c2,272$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.236653%35 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked MOUZ31c2,206$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.3431936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed MOUZ29c2,172$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.8764744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed MOUZ28c2,148$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.4850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb53…7b74backed LGD Gaming71c2,142$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.935271.2%37 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed MOUZ28c2,127$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.6225935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbd3…0591backed MOUZ10c2,121$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033151.6%16 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ26c2,111$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.731,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed LGD Gaming71c2,084$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.3547660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked MOUZ29c2,034$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60048053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ6c2,000$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2877458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked MOUZ28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5607936.7%29 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed MOUZ31c1,935$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60036343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked MOUZ25c1,874$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.3919338.9%75 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed LGD Gaming70c1,829$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.73875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bb7…7028backed MOUZ29c1,796$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5266839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc065…00e2backed LGD Gaming74c1,776$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.643759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed MOUZ15c1,750$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27043738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe39c…71c4backed MOUZ29c1,724$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005360.4%32 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed MOUZ24c1,690$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.614943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked MOUZ27c1,677$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.794544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed MOUZ26c1,593$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.2345750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked MOUZ31c1,525$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.619340.9%38 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked MOUZ31c1,500$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46542145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed MOUZ29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43518830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed LGD Gaming69c1,500$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46553652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ27c1,481$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.161,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ22c1,469$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.2368649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed LGD Gaming71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.4528252.5%148 W · 134 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5615…3199backed MOUZ29c1,378$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed LGD Gaming72c1,350$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.516256.8%92 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed MOUZ19c1,350$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a96…7a34backed MOUZ25c1,312$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.323735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21cc…54bcbacked MOUZ18c1,301$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2338442.9%36 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9015…281fbacked MOUZ28c1,300$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3643855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x951f…b356backed MOUZ4c1,180$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed MOUZ23c1,179$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.3645352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed MOUZ30c1,173$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.265441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.