MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac2fce7b8ee63b9d963c163739dba8694a5dc1ade47e3a0828315e509c057d04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 1,587$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.32 | 323 | 51.7%167 W · 156 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…5586backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 1,252$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 5c | 296$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 273.39$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed San Francisco Giants | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 194 | 35.6%69 W · 125 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 182.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 9c | 148$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 147.16$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 139.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 132.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 129.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 109.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 91.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 80.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 69.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 69.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 56.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 50.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 47.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…82e5backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 38.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 20.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.