MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72937edaa282222f728d3c8b407b725de19624e4f9d326b16135d4c048614216
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 16,665$8,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,754.68 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 9,192$4,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,850.21 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 7,136$3,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,860.28 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 4,041$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,255.01 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 2,435$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.31 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 2,192$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.55 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 58c | 2,024$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.43 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 1,795$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.5 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,537$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.77 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 1,275$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.09 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 999.57$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.27 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 58c | 979.96$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.58 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…f20ebacked Over | 58c | 976.77$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 43c | 889.95$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.25 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 53c | 559$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.92 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 518.19$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.89 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 45c | 445.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…6f6abacked Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 389.96$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 43c | 388.16$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.43 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 816 | 57.1%466 W · 350 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 58c | 206.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…33eabacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 50c | 159.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 152.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 48c | 146.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed Over | 58c | 124.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…0ababacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Over | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 42c | 94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 290 | 43.1%125 W · 165 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 55c | 68.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 58c | 59.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Under | 51c | 52.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 52c | 42.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 28c | 41.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 40.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 44c | 39.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 58c | 37.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…a024backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 38c | 33.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88dc…a732backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed Over | 50c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…556fbacked Over | 59c | 20.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.